The ODI Global think tank estimates that the 114 low and middle income countries (LMICs) could lose $89 billion per year about 0.5% of their combined GDP due to the new reciprocal tariffs imposed by Washington. The calculations are based on the assumption that a 1% increase in import prices leads to an equivalent drop in demand, with exporters fully bearing the brunt of American protectionism. To this must be added the announced reductions in official development assistance (ODA), estimated at $39 billion in 2025, which would affect 126 countries. The combined impact could represent a shock of more than 1.3% of LMICs’ GDP if additional trade sanctions targeting countries like Brazil, India, or Mexico are included.
Six african countries in the global top 10 of the most vulnerable
According to the ODI Global report, Africa appears on the front line. Based on 18 exposure indicators (dependence on U.S. exports, weight of international aid, economic and political fragility), six African countries rank among the world’s Top 10 most vulnerable: Burundi, South Sudan, Mozambique, São Tomé and Príncipe, Somalia, and Sudan. These countries share a double handicap : high dependence on external aid and low economic diversification. The report ranks Burundi and South Sudan among the most exposed globally, alongside Lebanon, Ukraine, and Afghanistan.
Heavy macroeconomic losses
Low income countries (LICs) will suffer the most dramatic effects, with losses equivalent to 1.8% of their combined GDP. Some small island states like São Tomé and Príncipe, the Marshall Islands, or Micronesia could lose up to 30% of their GDP solely from aid cuts. In Africa, the dependence of crisis affected countries such as Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan on international aid points to a sharp budget contraction, likely fueling social instability and security tensions.
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Indirect effects: financial volatility and weakened global trade
Beyond the direct impact, Africa will also be exposed to indirect effects such as increased volatility of capital flows and exchange rates linked to possible global monetary tightening, dependence on a Chinese slowdown the main driver of African exports and the questioning of AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act), the main framework of trade preferences between Africa and the United States. Ivory Coast and Tanzania, though less directly exposed, remain vulnerable to these indirect shocks.
To mitigate the impact of this double shock, ODI Global recommends several measures: debt reprofiling toward longer maturities and concessional financing, targeted monetary measures (liquidity easing, exchange rate buffers), diversification of trade partners to reduce dependence on the U.S., and industrial relocation with local processing of raw materials to strengthen resilience. In the medium term, the key will lie in economic diversification and the establishment of new regional and multilateral partnerships.
Morocco and Rwanda at the forefront of a multilateral response
In response to the rise of U.S. protectionism, some African countries are already seeking to strengthen their trade alliances. According to the Financial Times, Morocco and Rwanda will join in November the new FIT-P (Future of Investment and Trade Partnership) grouping, initiated by Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and New Zealand. Objective: to defend open, rules-based international trade and promote the digitalization of exchanges (electronic documents, digital signatures, online trade).
The strategic choice of the coming years will be to turn fragility into opportunity: consolidating regional value chains, negotiating new free trade agreements, and betting on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a lever for integration.
