The project plans to build a 2,400-megawatt (MW) hydroelectric power plant, equivalent to the power of two nuclear reactors. It would be located on the Zambezi River, about 30 kilometers downstream from Victoria Falls, in a steep gorge shared by the two countries. According to the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA), which is coordinating the project, Batoka Gorge will double the combined energy capacity of Zambia and Zimbabwe and increase their energy independence, in a context of growing domestic demand, especially due to mining activities. The project could also generate up to 10,000 direct and indirect jobs, according to a report from the African Development Bank (AfDB).

Economic challenges: high-risk financing

The revival of Batoka comes at a difficult economic time. Zambia, in default on its sovereign debt since 2020, is still finalizing negotiations with its creditors under the G20 Common Framework, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Zimbabwe, for its part, has an external debt of $21 billion, much of it owed to China, and is facing chronic inflation.

“The debt levels of these two countries make mobilizing financing extremely costly and uncertain,” explained Prosper Chitambara, an economist at the Labour and Economic Development Research Institute of Zimbabwe (LEDRIZ).

The two states initially awarded the project to General Electric (USA) and PowerChina, but Lusaka withdrew from the contract in 2023, citing irregularities in the bidding process, according to an official statement from Zambia’s Ministry of Energy in 2023.

Climate risk: dams undermined by drought

One factor that makes the project strategic is the increasing vulnerability of the Kariba Dam, the main source of electricity for both countries. According to the Southern African Power Pool, water levels in Lake Kariba have dropped to less than 13% of their maximum capacity, a critical level attributed to drought caused by El Niño.

This situation weakens electricity production, especially for Zambian mining operations, which account for more than 70% of the country’s exports, according to the World Bank. In this context, Batoka Gorge is seen as an essential alternative to secure energy supplies.

Congo river diversion : a controversial idea

At the same time, Zambia and Zimbabwe are considering a risky initiative: diverting up to 16 billion cubic meters of water per year from the Congo River, the second-largest river in the world by volume. The goal is to strengthen the water supply of Lake Kariba. This project, recently revived by the ZRA, was initially proposed in 2019 but deemed “technologically ambitious and environmentally risky” by International Rivers, an NGO specializing in the protection of African waterways. According to the United Nations Environment Programme, such a transfer would involve building hundreds of kilometers of canals or energy-intensive pumping systems in a rugged region. Alternatives, such as gravity-fed canals, are currently being studied to reduce the project’s carbon footprint.

The Batoka Gorge site is located near Victoria Falls, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The project therefore raises major environmental concerns. According to an environmental study commissioned by the ZRA in 2019, building the dam could disrupt the natural flow of the Zambezi River, threatening aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity, as well as tourism, which accounts for up to 10% of Zimbabwe’s GDP, according to the World Tourism Organization (2022).

Green financing considered

To overcome financial obstacles, the ZRA has announced it is exploring climate financing mechanisms, particularly from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the World Bank, which support climate adaptation projects in Africa. According to Munyaradzi Munodawafa, Director General of the ZRA, “green financing could provide a strategic path to reduce project costs while meeting international environmental standards.”